Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 19 brokers · 441 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-25.
Broker models frame Charter as a business trading near-flat revenue for a sharp free-cash-flow inflection: as the rural-buildout capex cliff arrives, modeled PP&E spend falls from ~$11.5bn toward ~$7.7bn by FY-2028 and company-defined FCF per share nearly triples, from ~$35 to ~$102, amplified by an assumed drop in diluted shares from ~141m to ~72m. The top line stays roughly flat near $54bn as fast-growing mobile service revenue offsets steady erosion in residential internet and video. The live debate is in the volume lines — how deep broadband losses run and how durable mobile-line growth proves — and in how quickly capex actually normalizes. Forward coverage is thin: most FY-2027/28 lines rest on only three to four brokers.
The capex cliff: FCF per share nearly triples to ~$102 by FY-2028
Models have PP&E capex falling from ~$11.5bn to ~$7.7bn as line-extension spend more than halves, lifting company-defined FCF; a large cut to diluted shares does the rest. The forward path rests on just two to three brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | $11.51bn | $11.41bn | $9.45bn | $7.69bn | -0.8% | 17 |
| Line extensions- Capex | $4.01bn | $3.26bn | $2.44bn | $1.96bn | -18.6% | 15 |
| Cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow - Company defined | $4.90bn | $4.80bn | $5.66bn | $7.62bn | -1.9% | 17 |
| Free Cash flow per share - Company defined($) | $35.07 | $39.41 | $55.37 | $102.2 | +12.4% | 17 |
| Per share | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weighted average shares outstanding - Diluted(M#) | 141.11m Number | 121.84m Number | 102.04m Number | 72.03m Number | -13.7% | 19 |
| EPS-Diluted($) | $35.26 | $39.95 | $45.41 | $62.42 | +13.3% | 19 |
Key drivers
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth engine | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Residential - Mobile service revenue | $3.80bn | $4.34bn | $4.92bn | $5.47bn | +14.5% | 18 |
| Legacy decline | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Residential - Internet revenue | $23.79bn | $23.22bn | $22.72bn | $22.25bn | -2.4% | 18 |
| Residential - Video revenue | $13.79bn | $12.65bn | $12.13bn | $11.72bn | -8.3% | 18 |
| Steady | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Commercial revenue | $7.33bn | $7.38bn | $7.41bn | $7.44bn | +0.7% | 18 |
| Consolidated | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | $54.91bn | $54.26bn | $53.69bn | $53.70bn | -1.2% | 19 |
Broadband subscribers keep shrinking as mobile lines grow — but mobile adds are slowing
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadband | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total internet subscribers(K#) | 29.66m Number | 29.09m Number | 28.47m Number | 27.80m Number | -1.9% | 17 |
| Internet - net adds(K#) | -416,437 Number | -588,125 Number | -615,100 Number | -671,439 Number | -41.2% | 17 |
| Mobile | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total mobile lines(K#) | 11.87m Number | 13.35m Number | 14.78m Number | 16.11m Number | +12.4% | 13 |
| Mobile lines - net adds(K#) | 1.99m Number | 1.58m Number | 1.43m Number | 1.34m Number | -20.6% | 14 |
| Video | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Video - net adds(K#) | -409,501 Number | -198,000 Number | -179,000 Number | -161,250 Number | +51.6% | 17 |
Where the models split: capex pace, resulting FCF, and how bad broadband gets
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cable Capex | FY-2028E | $7.48bn | $7.39bn–$8.30bn | $7.26bn–$10.59bn | 4 |
| Free cash flow - Company defined | FY-2028E | $8.04bn | $7.32bn–$8.12bn | $6.61bn–$8.20bn | 3 |
| Internet - net adds(K#) | FY-2028E | -667,750 Number | -791,125 Number–-548,064 Number | -820,000 Number–-530,255 Number | 4 |
| Total mobile lines(K#) | FY-2028E | 16.13m Number | 16.04m Number–16.21m Number | 15.84m Number–16.35m Number | 4 |
Forward coverage thins to a handful of brokers
Current-year (FY-2025) lines carry roughly 15-19 brokers, but most FY-2027 and FY-2028 estimates rest on only three to four, and several mobile and segment detail lines on a single broker. Revisions are current (July 2026), so the risk here is dispersion, not staleness; single-broker lines are one analyst's view, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.